Since we last saw you, the 2024 presidential showdown has faced several curveballs, changing the dynamics of an already energized race. From an assassination attempt to a dropout and vice presidential picks, calling the past several months eventful puts it lightly. While the politics is always changing, the stakes are still the same. The composition of the House and Senate are up for grabs, Supreme Court seats are in the balance, and the battle for America’s future never takes a break. Keep an eye out for updates and insights from the Ferox team on our socials, where you can get sneak peeks of our evolving election slide deck.

Presidential Possibilities

The American electorate is going through a rollercoaster of emotions given the latest developments of this presidential election cycle, which augment its concerns on domestic and foreign policy. Between inflation and conflicts abroad, Americans are voicing their opinions and gauging which candidate addresses their concerns. 

In late July, President Biden dropped out of the race due to his debate performance, health concerns, and complaints he was hindering Democratic Congressional candidates’ chances of winning. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who has solidified near universal Democratic support as she raised $540 million since her campaign launched. Based on an aggregate of polls, VP Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 1.6%. On a generic ballot, a Republican trails a Democratic candidate by 1.5%. Both candidates can strengthen their support in the upcoming debate on September 10th, hosted by ABC. While Trump has called for additional debates, none have been agreed upon or confirmed.

Both vice presidential picks have been impactful this election cycle by garnering support and gaining criticism. Previous offensive comments from Senator J.D. Vance have resurfaced about single women alongside questions on the authenticity of his Midwest demeanor as shown in his book Hillbilly Elegy. To add icing on top of Vance’s cake is a recent awkward donut shop encounter he shared online. Governor Tim Walz is countering criticism over stolen valor regarding his rank in the National Guard and combat experience, his response to the 2020 Black Lives Matter movement, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The vice presidential contenders will be debating on October 1st, hosted by CBS.

The prospects for a Trump or Harris victory are intricate and show how tight this race is. Former President Trump’s likely paths to victory are sweeping the Sun Belt and winning one “rust belt” state, like Pennsylvania, or if he wins all battleground states. VP Harris’s likely paths to victory are sweeping the “Blue Wall” (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), or securing the battleground states that went to President Biden in 2020 (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia).

If You Look Under Your Chair, You’ll Find New Government Funding!

When we left you last, Congress approved the budget for this fiscal year and quickly began working on funding for the next fiscal year. Now back from recess, they face a packed agenda, including bills to extend expiring programs and finalize government funding. By July, the House passed all twelve appropriations bills except the Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, and the Senate cleared eleven through the committee process, with the Homeland Security bill still pending. With only 13 in-session days before the September 30th deadline, Congress must resort to a “Continuing Resolution” (CR) to maintain current funding levels. House Republicans released a proposed CR on Friday, September 6th with an end date of March 28, 2025. They have also attached the “SAVE” Act as widely reported. The “SAVE” Act bill, which passed the House with five Democratic votes, would prevent noncitizens from voting in federal elections — which is already illegal. This funding plan is strongly opposed by the White House, Senate Democrats, as well as House Democrats.

AI and Telecom
In the mad dash to return to their states, Senators voted on several consequential artificial intelligence (AI) and tech bills. Notably, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and Children and Teens Online Privacy Protection Act 2.0 (COPPA 2.0) passed with a 91-3 vote. The DEFIANCE Act passed unanimously, while the Future of AI Innovation Act and CREATE AI Act were approved by the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee. In contrast, the House has seen delays: the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) has been rescheduled four times and still faces hurdles, though KOSA has advanced to the House floor where it awaits a final vote. Additionally, the PLAN for Broadband Act, which includes a $7 billion amendment for the Affordable Connectivity Program, passed the Senate, with a similar bill in the House still pending.

Health
The BIOSECURE Act will be taken up under suspension this week, signaling bipartisan support. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) has stated plans to use that method in his chamber’s NDAA. The rest of Congress’ healthcare action looms in the lame duck period, aside from the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher Program (RPD PRV) expiring on Sept. 30th. Rather than race against the calendar, Congress will likely include an extension for the program in the CR. Leaders at the FDA shared support for the program over the summer.

New Faces Same Places
As we round out the year, more members are departing from the general election ballot in 2024, adding to an already eye-popping list of members not seeking a return to Congress. The recent developments mean that even fewer incumbents, mostly Democratic, are returning to the House than previously thought. Primaries this summer ousted Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), and Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) lost a recount in his Virginia primary. Following his conviction on corruption charges, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) dropped out of his re-election bid. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) passed away in July as did Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) in August, leaving their seats vacant.

Ferox Director featured in Bloomberg – Ferox Director Michael Taggart, previous Policy Director of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, opined on the political obstacles the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) faces as it navigates the current political landscape in the Bloomberg Government article, “Kids’ Online Safety Measure Faces Hurdles, Hope Ahead in House.” To read more click here.

Viatris, Inc. hosted the reception for the 16^th Annual Congressional Women’s Softball Game – Earlier this summer Viatris, Inc., welcomed Members of Congress, the D.C. Press Corps, the Young Survival Coalition, Volunteers, and other community members for the Congressional Women’s Softball Game Reception. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-FL), a co-founder of the game, delivered remarks, alongside Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D-NY), Emily Goodin of the Daily Mail, and Katie Lobosco of CNN. Rep. Wasserman Shultz highlighted her experience with breast cancer and the importance of the bipartisan community the game provides Members on the issue of young women’s health. Viatris has been a loyal multi-year supporter of the games and is committed to accessible medicines for this community.

National Retail Federation held its 2024 Retail Advocates Summit – The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) hosted its annual Retail Advocates Summit which is designed to educate lawmakers from the business perspective. NRF awarded 216 representatives and 49 senators, with its Hero of Main Street Award, as they all support and advocate for the retail industry. Most importantly, the Summit celebrated small retailers who make a substantial impact to their communities, individuals, and the economy. NRF’s work helps bring a sense of belonging to these retailers, who are a critical part of America.

Events:

• Congressional Black Caucus Foundation (CBCF) – On September 11 – 15th, the CBCF Annual Legislative Conference will hold its 53rd conference with the theme From Vision to Victory: Amplifying Black Voices. Register here.
• Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute (CHCI) – On September 17 – 19th, the CHCI Leadership Conference and their 47th Annual Awards Gala will celebrate Latino Excellence in Action: Innovation, Influence, and Representation, honoring Latino creativity, resiliency, and representation. Register here.
• Women in Government Relations (WGR) Leadership and Advocacy Conference – On Sept. 24 – 25th, the annual WGR Leadership and Advocacy Conference will provide insights from woman advocates around the country, highlight the latest strategies, and touch on potential outcomes of the upcoming election and what it means. Register here.
• Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute (CHLI) – On September 25th CHLI will host its 13th Annual Trade and International Affairs Symposium. The symposium will coalesce Members of Congress, U.S. government officials, corporate and trade association experts, and members of the diplomatic community to discuss trade issues and international affairs that affect U.S. global competitiveness. Register here.

Ferox Strategies is a boutique government relations firm that takes its name from the Latin word for “fierce,” reflecting the firm’s values of determination, dedication, and aggressive advocacy for our clients. Ferox’s bipartisan team of government relations professionals offers clients decades’ worth of policy and advocacy experience paired with the tenacity of a start-up firm. www.FeroxStrategies.com.