By Jonathan Tamari, Maeve Sheehey and Kate Ackley

August 19, 2024 

• Democrats have new optimism even as some skip convention
• Pro-Palestinian activists plan protest outside Chicago event

Vice President Kamala Harris is surging, and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week gives her a chance to build more momentum at the end of a historically turbulent political summer.

It’s also now a hot ticket for entertainers, lobbyists and rank-and-file Democrats, some of whom have rushed to make plans to attend after the party’s change at at the top of the ticket. State delegations are scrambling to snag big political headliners at their morning breakfasts. Harris now leads in many national polls and some key swing states after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

As the fresh presidential nominee works to define her campaign, the convention is a chance for Harris to cement her image and shape not just the presidential race but the backdrop of the contests that will decide control of the Senate and House. Already the political atmosphere has shifted sharply. Just four weeks ago, a defiant Donald Trump rode high out of the Republican convention in Milwaukee. But a new ticket has given Democrats optimism and vigor heading into their own four days of carefully crafted events and speeches.

“I’ve never seen this level of energy since the Obama campaign,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “You can’t fake it. You can’t buy it. It’s for real.”

The excitement, he added, has translated “in virtually every state where we’re protecting an incumbent or helping a challenger.”

Democrats hope a blue surge portends blowout wins in liberal New York and California, two states that could hold the keys to the House.

In Senate races, polling commissioned by the non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter showed Democrats widening their leads in several of the most critical contests, with double-digit advantages in Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Democrats, though, have to run the table to keep control, and the poll didn’t survey races in Montana and Ohio, where incumbent Democrats face their toughest contests. 

Excitement, Absences

Perhaps tellingly, the Democratic senators in those states, Jon Tester (Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), along with another endangered incumbent, Sen. Jacky Rosen (Nev.), will skip the convention. Tester and Brown will need to win over significant numbers of Trump voters to win their races, given their state’s political leanings.

“Sherrod is looking forward to hearing from Ohioans in Youngstown, Toledo, Cleveland, Chillicothe, and Sandusky,” Brown campaign spokesperson Eliza Green said in an email.

Tester is attending an event with Pearl Jam, a band he has a close relationship with, farming, and meeting with voters, according to his campaign.

Reps. Josh Harder (Calif.) and Mary Peltola (Alaska), two endangered Democrats who haven’t endorsed Harris, won’t be in Chicago, their campaigns confirmed. Peltola’s all-parties primary is on Tuesday. Also staying away are Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar, a vulnerable Democrat facing a legal battle over alleged bribes, and Rep. Yadira Caraveo (Colo.), whose district is one of the most competitive in the House.

Threats Looming

Despite Democratic optimism, there are still threats looming.

The presidential race remains a toss up, likely to come down to several swing states that could each be decided by tiny margins. Key issues such as the economy and immigration still favor Republicans, according to polls. Harris has benefited from being an alternative to Trump and Biden. But she’s not well defined for many voters, leaving room for both parties to make an impression.

“People, I think, are projecting a lot onto her right now because the reality is they don’t have a very hardened perception of who she is,” said Walter, the Cook Political Report’s editor-in-chief. “She isn’t one of the other two – they do know that.”

Republican strategists believe that Harris, despite her early gains, is a weak strategist, manager, and on-her-feet politician. They say her past liberal stands leave her vulnerable, especially those she took while veering left in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

“We want to run against the Kamala Harris that ran in 2020,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster.

The problem, Republicans worry, is that Trump is talking about everything but that. At an event last week billed as an economic address, he downplayed the issue that might offer his most important advantage. The next day he used a news conference to insult Harris.

“I don’t have a lot of respect for her,” Trump said. “I don’t have a lot of respect for her intelligence, and I think she’ll be a terrible president.”

Just hours earlier Republican pollster Greg Strimple told reporters that the Trump campaign has the right message, “It’s just the candidate that’s getting in the way.”

The staged events in Chicago will also butt up against protests planned by pro-Palestinian activists who are outraged over Israel’s assault in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and Biden’s military support for the Jewish state. Tens of thousands of people are expected on Monday and Thursday at Union Park, about a half-mile from the United Center, the host of the major official events of the week. The Chicago area is home to the largest Palestinian population in the U.S. The scenes could elevate one of the most divisive issues separating progressives from more mainstream liberals.

Inside the convention, the Uncommitted National Movement, formed to protest Biden’s Israel policies, is seeking two speaking slots and space for vigils and testimonies. It has 30 delegates based on votes it won during the Democratic primary.

Having a new nominee “opens a very small window” to unite Democrats around “a more moral pathway and a policy that is more aligned with our stated democratic values,” said Layla Elabed, an Uncommitted co-founder.

Rising Stars

The wrenching policy debate will be juxtaposed against glitz and ambition.

Stars such as John Legend, Joan Jett, and Uma Thurman are scheduled to join the festivities. There’ll be appearances by Biden and former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama and also marquee moments for rising stars as the party looks both backward and forward.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, and other rising talents will be among the speakers at key events.

Reps. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Mikie Sherrill (N.J.), who all harbor statewide ambitions, will host a “Badass Caucus” party, along with Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (Pa.). Slotkin is running for Senate, Spanberger has announced a run for governor, and Sherrill is considering a gubernatorial bid.

And some Democrats in tight races will join the convention, including Reps. Don Davis (N.C.), Emilia Sykes (Ohio), Jared Moskowitz (Fla.), and Chris Deluzio (Pa.).

Leading liberals, including Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (Wash.) and “Squad” member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) are planning to attend, even as some progressives accuse the administration of being too supportive of Israel’s conservative government.

Lobbyists on Board

Members of the influence industry, even those that have sometimes been at odds with the Biden administration, are planning to attend.

The oil industry’s American Petroleum Institute will have executives on the ground, while companies including United Airlines and AT&T are among the donors to the host committee.

The Raben Group, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, and Invariant are among the K Street firms planning events.

The convention even has an official clean energy provider — Chicago-based Invenergy.

Lobbying firm Ferox Strategies will host a recovery brunch, as it did for the GOP convention. Over the past week, said Ferox founder Cristina Antelo, fundraising invites from lawmakers have flooded in and clients have shown a sharp uptick in attendance.

“It feels like a real convention again,” she said.